Reddit · forecast track record
In Q2 2026 we forecast $821.2M in revenue and Reddit reported $804.9M. An early result worth building on, with every forecast and miss shown below.
Q2 2026
| Metric | Forecast | Actual | Error | Recorded ±1σ range | In range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 821.2 | 804.9 | +2.03% | 770.7–871.7 | Yes |
| DAUq (M) | 125.82 | 130.3 | −3.44% | 118.59–133.05 | Yes |
| WAUq (M) | 490.4 | 514.6 | −4.70% | 462.5–518.2 | Yes |
| ARPU ($) | 6.53 | 6.18 | +5.66% | Not recorded | — |
| Error = forecast ÷ actual − 1, using the displayed values. Positive means high; negative means low. ±1σ is one standard deviation of modeled uncertainty. ARPU had no recorded range. | |||||
Reddit’s Q2 2026 results ↗. DAUq and WAUq are quarterly averages of daily and weekly active uniques; ARPU is quarterly revenue per average daily active unique.
Revenue comparison
Oscylo’s forecast was 2.03% high. The displayed Zacks benchmark was 7.45% low. Shading shows company guidance and Oscylo’s recorded model range; they describe different things.
Reddit’s Q1 release set Q2 revenue guidance at $715–725M. Zacks’ July 28 preview reported a $744.94M consensus, shown here as $744.9M.
Reading the result
Our $821.2M forecast sat above company guidance and Zacks consensus, and closer to the $804.9M result than either benchmark. That is an encouraging first result for Oscylo’s approach to modeling Reddit’s business.
The estimate combined a DAUq forecast with an ARPU projection. DAUq was 3.44% low and ARPU was 5.66% high.
The forecast implied a 0.77% sequential decline in global DAUq. Reddit reported +2.76% growth. DAUq and WAUq finished above the point estimates, within their recorded ranges.
Looking back, the projected −0.77% change was close to the −0.56% change in US DAUq, about 0.21 percentage points apart. We recognized the possible US tilt only after the result, and this was not a separately issued US forecast.
That near-match helped focus our regional research. Since Q2, we have built separate US and international DAU estimates to better distinguish growth in markets that monetize differently. The next earnings release will test how that refinement performs.
US DAUq: 53.5M in Q1 → 53.2M in Q2. Explore Reddit’s reported regional results.
Forecast record
Oscylo’s internal forecast record dates the model run before the scheduled market close. Q2 timing is based on our own records, not independent verification of public release.
Reddit’s announced release schedule placed results after the market close, with the call at 4:30 p.m. ET. The reported results are the actuals used above.
The recorded ranges are model estimates. One scored quarter is too little history to establish their long-run coverage.
Next quarter
· tentative, not confirmed by Reddit.
MarketBeat’s calendar estimate, checked . We’ll update this date after Reddit’s announcement. Days follow the New York calendar.